Morning Market Comment

S&P futures have been on the plus side this morning by as much as 5 points indicating a higher open. What futures don't tell us is whether the market can make it past the May S&P highs whic is the 1540 area.The economic calendar is quite today, aside from the release of the weekly MBA data showing a slide in activity: Ahead of the Bell: Mortgage Applications.Some of the positive factors for the stock market include Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley's Net Jumps 40%.Some expected a blow up out of Fedex (FDX), and they did lower guidance, but the company still managed post results that avoided a crash and burn scenario: FedEx Profit Falls Short as Economy Slows. FDX actually a little less than $1 in pre market.MGM is sliding by better than 9%: Kerkorian's Tracinda Ends MGM Talks. The question now, what else might Kerkorian target?Bristol-Meyers (BMY) is 20-cents higher after Citi reiterated a buy on BMY saying that following the Plavix court victory the company could be a more attract

Stock futures are flying following release of the Consumer Price Index which featured an in-line overall rise of .7% in May, but a core reading, which excludes food and energy, that was up a less than expected .1%. The overall CPI was pushed higher by a 5.4% surge in energy prices. Helping to keep the core cool, owners equivalent rent was up by just .1%, and prescription drug prices fell .1%. This report is also boosting sentiment: U.S. June Empire State index at highest level in a year. And the current account deficit, while staggering, rose to $192.6 bln in the 1st quarter vs expectations for a surge to $200 bln.The economic data as sparked a surge of more than 9 points in S&P futures, so it looks like a third day of gains ahead on Wall Street. Today is expiration Friday - the quarterly "quad witch". As noted earlier in the week, an OEX above the 700 strike at the end of the day could trigger computer driven buy programs. The OEX closed yesterday at 699.82. Look out above if we can g

The Wall Street bulls will attempt further follow through to yesterday's gains, but their world is not perfect with a larger than expected headline PPI number and tomorrow's CPI figures looming large. It's not the first time that the PPI figures have come through way stronger than expected and the street has become used to largely shrugging off the big PPI swings and looking at core which again came through at a .2% rise; so S&P futures are nudging higher by a point.As the old saying goes, "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings". On the CBOT (BOT) takeover front yet another wrinkle: CME and CBOT Revise Merger Agreement to Provide Increased Value to ...Big names in the brokerage world have posted results and their stocks are lower:Goldman Sachs quarterly profit rises, beating estimates. GS is down over 2%.Bear Stearns (BSC) reports a 2nd quater profit of $3.40/shr vs estimates of $3.49. Revenue at $2.51 bln beat consensus estimates by $200 mln. So much for the folks who bought th

Stock futures are spurting higher following the 8:30 release of economic data. The figures on retail sales and import prices are stronger than expected. Retail sales jump 1.4%, biggest gain in 16 months, U.S. May import prices rise 0.9%. Briefly, the yield on the 10 year treasury jumped to 5.31%, but have since pulled back. So S&P futures are shooting higher as a rebound takes shape this morning indicating that even a whiff of a more stable 10 year treasury is able to give the stock market some room to rally. But staying power is what's important - whether initial gains after the open can be sustained in this higher rate environment. The usual suspects will need to be watched closely: everything from bond yields to VIX futures and the VIX (interesting that the VIX futures somewhat lagged the actual VIX yesterday) to breadth and put to call ratios, etc.The recent surge in bond yields has had a noticeable impact on mortgage activity. US mortgage applications rose last week - MBA. It loo

5.20% is likely the biggest stumbling block for the bulls this morning and it's reflected in a decent sized drop in stock futures. 5.20% is the yield on the 10 year treasury, rising in the absence of major economic data today.Texas Instruments is the other stumbling block for the stock market: Texas Instruments narrows sales forecast for Q2. The stock is down 2% and sure to keep the chip sector weak today. This news will also pressure chips: Intel reported ready to slash prices of some processors..Lehman has kicked off a strong earnings season for the brokers: Lehman Brothers quarterly earnings rise. LEH is up 2%, but the news is not enough to keep stock futures from falling.Dow Jones family lay down the law to Murdoch. This should be interesting. The stock has been holding slightly above $60 indicating the market still thinks Murdoch wins... keep an eye for any sagging below $60.As suspected, puts indeed were the wrong way to go on Take-Two (TTWO): Take-Two Posts 2Q Net Loss. The h

Stock futures are little changed to trying to drift higher in dead cat bounce fashion after 3 down days even as bonds continue to slip. The 10 year yield is up to 5.17%. One of my concerns about the recent bond market jolt is what it might do to leveraged buyouts, both those that have yet to occur and to some deals that have already been completed. The LBO has been a key driver of the recent stock market bull run. The Wall Street Journal this morning is reporting,"Even as the buyout boom rolls on, a number of recent high-profile deals are already showing signs of strain. Among them: the $1.3 billion purchase of retailer Linens 'n Things Inc. by a group led by Apollo Management LP; Avista Capital Partners' $530 million buyout of the Star Tribune newspaper in Minneapolis; and the $17.6 billion deal for Freescale Semiconductor Holdings by several buyout specialists. Apollo's $6.7 billion purchase of Realogy Corp. also is raising questions among some investors." Click Here To Read More.

I don't mean to be editorially picky, but one well known website this morning started their lead report on the markets by stating, "After two days of heavy losses..." I'm sorry, but two days of Dow declines of less than 1% are not "heavy losses". Yikes. Ok, now that I've gotten that out of the way, it does look like U.S. stock markets are poised to open little changed following a few days of

No surprise from the European Central Bank. They have lifted their benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to 4%. The bigger is question is how much higher? A Goldman Sachs report this morning says perhaps another 50 bps more of rate hikes this year from the ECB. The Wall Street Journal has a thoughtful piece this morning on how spare production capacity is running out in many countries while

Instead of a Shanghai surprise where they almost melted down again last night, problems closer to home appear to be getting the better of the bulls this morning. Is a trend in the making? Are intrepid shoppers pulling back on purchases of $500 Dyson vacuum cleaners, or 3200 thread count sheets, $400 home espresso machines, or $150 kitchen garbage cans with automatic lids? The housewares retailer

With this sinusitis making it feel like someone pushed a thumb tack into my face just below the right eye, I arrived late to my home office - at 8:31. I didn't even have to look at the news ticker, just the S&P futures - up more than 5 at that moment - to know the employment numbers were to the liking of Wall Street: U.S. nonfarm payrolls up 157,000 in May. This is a pretty cool world in which we

Brief today as I've been running around shuttling my daughter to a special school event. In spite of the barely growing economy at .6% annualized growth in Q1, stocks are poised to open higher (the notion being the Fed won't need to lift rate and may need to cut). Deals continue to be the dominant theme with AG Edwards (AGE) being taken out at a $10 premium. I've got anoher appointment I have

How spooked will Wall Street be today following a 6.5% dive in the Shanghai Composite Index overnight? That's the $64 question this morning. S&P futures are indicating that we're going to see a knee jerk lower at the open. Thus far, declines in Europe are limited to dips of no more than around 1%. Developments in the Chinese market will need to watched closely since a sharper unwind in their

It looks like a rebound is in the making for Wall Street with rising S&P futures. As noted yesterday, The S&P 500 managed to stay above the 3 month trendline (its 20 day moving average) which was one of the few positive things in an otherwise ugly day of fairly strong selling. One eye will need to be kept on the S&P for any testing of the 1500 level which appears to be a key support area; another

Stock futures briefly perked up on the .6% rise in April durable goods orders and the revision higher for March orders. Capital goods orders were up more than 1% last month. U.S. weekly jobless claims were up 15,000 to 311,000, the first weekly rise in six. Existing home sales are due at 10 and I think we get a better idea of the bulls can save the day after those numbers are out. There are

Another morning, another likely higher open as S&P futures show a gain of better than 4 and are high enough above fair value. Whether the market can close on the plus-side remains to be seen, as the last couple of days have featured rally attempts only to see them sputter. Once again, M&A is providing the bulls with plenty of morning ambition: Now that Alcan (AL) has rejected Aloca (AA), the

There are more deals then you can shake a stick at this morning: China to take $3 billion stake in Blackstone Equity Firms to Buy Alltel in $27.5 Billion DealMerrill taking stake in hedge fund GSO -WSJHologic to buy Cytyc for $6.2 billionSun Pharma to buy Taro for $454 mln, shares upYahoo eyes MySpace rival? Chief of EGL Raises Buyout Bid Yet AgainDTE Energy to Sell Antrim Shale Gas

We're going into expiration-Friday with strong stock futures. While there was a large exercise of OEX calls late yesterday, 695 and above for OEX will help to maintain a positive bias for the market today. Grabbing the headlines this morning: China raises interest rate,bank reserve requirment. The most noticeable impact is a small rise in the Japanese Yen. This is a triple whammy from China with

Stock futures are drifting lower this morning ahead of economic data. Today at 8:30, we get the release from the government on jobless claims. Philly Fed and Leading Indicators are also due for release. At 9:30, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke about the subprime mortgage market at the Chicago Fed Bank Structure conference, No Q&A . There's a good amount of news this morning about takeovers and

Stock futures little changed this morning as the market awaits the latest Housing Starts data. The numbers are due at 8:30 et and will give ammo for either the bulls or bears to work with. A rise of 3% is expected. Yesterday's NAHB housing sentiment numbers remained in the 'ugly' catagory: Home builder sentiment sinks to 15-year low. Meantime, the latest Mortgage Bankers Association numbers are

The U.S. economic calendar is clear of any major economic releases today, but tomorrow's schedule which includes CPI and Empire Manufacturing, may make some gun shy about taking positions today. The Consumer Price Index is forecast by the fun bunch known as economists to run up by an overall .5 in April, while core CPI (exluding food and energy) is expected to rise by .2%. Unchanged

I'm way behind today.... actually had FEMA here this morning to survey damage done here from the heavy rains last month. Our usually quiet mountain stream nearly took our driveway bridge out and caused a nice long section of property to literally sink about six feet. I have no idea what FEMA will decide, but it was interesting. The market dodged a bullet with unchanged core inflation.

Stock futures are pointing south this morning. Retail sales are a negative factor. Same store sales for April look ugly as an early Easter left consumer's wallets empty in April: Wal Mart Stores (WMT) down 3.5% w/Wal Mart down 4.5%. Sam's up 2.3%. Wal Mart says may will be better with a 1% to 2% gain. Target down 6.1%JC Penney down 4.7%Federated (FD) down 2.2%Abercrombie down 15%Kirkland's down

Aside from the nightmare of an FDA which places whatever politics and special interests of the chemo industry before the needs of suffering prostate cancer patients, last night's flat guidance from Cisco (CSCO), which is down 5%, is weighing on broader market sentiment, especially in the land of techs. Today is also Fed meeting day, and even if the Fed gives everyone what they're expecting by way

Stock futures are signaling a bit of weakness at the open. Yes, it is conceivable that we could see one of those rare events - a down day and for no other reason then it's just going to be a weak day after a string of advances. That happens every so often and it is of course very possible that we quickly rebound off of any early weakness too. There isn't a specific catalyst that I see here for

Depending on your perspective this is either a huge merger Monday, or a dud. Alcoa (AA) is offering to buy Alcan (AL) for $33 bln dollars in cash and stock. AA is coughing up the equivalent of $73.25 a share for AL, a 20% premium to this past Friday's closing price. This is obviously great news if you were long AL or holding options, but implied volatility was fairly low on Friday for AL. The

Ahead of employment data... it's looking like a long and strong type of morning. The Yahoo (YHOO see post/link below) takeover talk; the report that Reuters (RTRSY) has a suitor of some sort Reuters says gets bid approach, shares leap 20 pct; the big post earnings rally our of Crocs (CROX) Crocs shares surge on results; decent earnings from Starbucks (SBUX) 560 new stores give lift to Starbucks'

Stock futures are in a bit of a fog this morning after another Wall Street rally yesterday that sent the Dow soaring above 13,200. Pac Rim where markets in South Korea, Australia and Singapore closed at records overnight. Investors may run in place today ahead tomorrow's employment data which is expected to show non farm payrolls grew by 100,000 during the month of April and unemployment at 4.5%.

First, after a variety of feedback I've reconsidered the whole disclosure thing and will continue to offer opinions, but I will be adding more disclaimers to remind that I can't give individual advice and that my thumbs up or down on stocks are opinions and not recommendations. Thanks for all the feedback. Stock futures this morning are modestly higher. Economic data: US mortgage applications

Welcome to May 1st. Is it time to go away in May? The Stock Trader's Almanac notes that the worst six months of the year begin in May. The Almanac also pooints out that an investment of $10,000 timed top sit only from November to April would have compounded to nearly $500,000; while the same 10-g's if timed to sit over the same 55 years from May to October suffered a small los of $500. I'm

This week will be a waiting game for many - waiting for this Friday's April employment data; not only waiting, but positioning ahead of it. Even today a couple of important economic data points are on tap: At 8:30 the latest read on personal income and spending; 9:45 Chicago-NAPM is expected to how an April decline to about the 54 mark. March Construction Spending Figures are due at 10, and a

This won't come to a shock to regular readers, but stock futures are lower which may mean a spell of further consolidation of recent gains is ahead for the market. Say, it ain't so, Joe! Yes, it doesn't go up all the time. Clearly the rally that pushed the stock market past the 13k mark earlier in the week came with a lot of new faces that had been boycotting the market since the late February

Wall Street's bulls look set to build on yesterday's gains thanks to strong earnings from companies like Apple, Xilinx, F5 Networks and 3M. Still, I can't imagine some profit taking attempt not being made very soon. Options trading in Wendy's (WEN) was unusually heavy at over 23,000 contracts yesterday versus average daily options volume is around 1,500. I thought it odd ahead of earnings but

It's been all about earnings, or more specifically the outlook-spin and illusion (guidance), which we discussed at the end of March as 1st quarter earnings season was approaching. Many a company has managed to post less than jubilant numbers (IBM and Altera are two that immediately come to mind this week), but then throw in some positive statements about the quarters ahead or juice up a stock

1550 would a record high for the S&P 500 which is now perched at the 1484 level. I can't help but to wonder about 1550 when AstraZeneca (AZN) feels it fit to take out Medimmune (MEDI) at more than 70x forward earnings with its $15.6 bln transaction. Rich valuation is one of the reasons I jettisoned the MEDI May 50 calls late Friday thinking the stock was already richly valued and that low options

I''ve had some phone conference calls this morning, so a brief post. I will flesh things out as the day progresses when I'm less tied up. It looks like the market is on its way UP this morning. With this being an expiration Friday and with the OEX not far from plenty of call open interest at 675 there could be even great bullish bias as the day progresses through computer driven buy programs.

With Globex futures down about 7 this morning, it's looking like the tape will be painted red this morning. A big reason? China. China's GDP grows 11.1 percent in first quarter threatens the possibility that interest rates will have to be raised, or other measures taken in that country to cool their economy. You'll recall, the "other measure" in China that sent markets off a cliff in late

Economic data is giving the markets a boost this morning. Stock futures moved out of the red after the 8:30 releases. The main focal point is the Core CPI which rose by just .1% in March, vs the .2% gain as weakening housing price gains and a drop in apparel prices kept the core under control. Still, overall CPI was up by a larger than expected .6 percent as energy costs continue to surge.

I went to bed last night wondering if my driveway would still be intact and it is! The big Nor'easter of '07 didn't take my bridge out though the normally quiet mountain stream that flows under it is a roaring torrent. It hasn't been so high and loud since tropical storm Floyd in 1999. Amazing. That was fast. Sallie Mae (SLM) is going to be taken out by a group that includes JP Morgan (JPM),

It looks like a sigh of relief from the Wall Street bulls over an unchanged core PPI, though overall producer producers jumped 1 percent in March on rising food and energy costs. On the trade front: U.S. trade gap narrows slightly in Feb. I am capable of generating my own inflation right in my own garage. I recently purchased what is known as the "Inflation Station", a versatile air pump for

Along with the array of earnings reports after the bell today, and the energy inventory data at 10:30, one other interesting data point comes our way at 2 p.m: the release of the March FOMC minutes. Ah, the drama, the intrigue! You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll kiss your portfolio goodbye! Citigroup (C) announces "streamlining" measures which include the axing of 17,000 jobs. Again, Charles

Good morning! I am away in the mid Atlantic region for some r&r so posting will be limited this week. I will come out of the woodwork if the market can either surge past 1440 on the S&P or breaks below 1409. I will also update on any stocks that I have recently posted about and will put out my evening curtain raisers, but mornings this week in Williamsburg and then next week the Outer Banks are

It's all well and good that my Dendreon (DNDN) call position is going to skyrocket today (I have the April 7-1/2s), the real victory is for the victims of prostate cancer who will soon have another treatment option available. Indymac (NDE) has been going to great lengths to say all is well in its ALT-A lending world even touting recent purchases of shares by insiders. BOFA is not buying it -

I've got a loaded schedule today, so this post will be brief and posts today will be limited. As noted last night things had simmered down considerably for stock, energy and currency futures and as the night progressed stock futures gained a modest head of steam and are a bit higher this morning. As I've noted over the last few days, that low point of the FOMC meeting day in the neighborhood of

The market is bracing itself for Ben Bernanke's appearance at 10:30 before the Joint Economic Committee. Bernanke's been on the high wire and it will be interesting to see the balance he strikes between talk of saving the housing market or a need to be vigilant on the inflation front, or if he emphasizes one vs the other. The 30 year bond yield has been climbing, especially since the Fed rate

Consumer Confidence data comes our way at 10:00 this morning. A drop of a little more than 5 points is expected. I'm not ruling out a bigger than expected drop, though the Conference Board does the bulk of the survery earlier in the month (obviously since its a March survey out on March 27th) so certainly the stock market jitters would have been captured, but perhaps not the snowballing impact of

This is the last trading week of March. Many have been talking about 'window dressing' support for the market this week. All this talk about 'window dressing' makes me think about a good salad 'dressing' more than anything else and not about bad assumptions with respect to the stock market. I've really taken a liking to a combination of Ken's Raspberry Walnut drizzled on along with some Marie's

I was so busy yesterday that I hadn't noticed that I passed the 100,000 mark for unique visitors. Thanks to everyone for stopping by! 100k folks passing through this tent since I put it up last November - not bad. Total clicks are closing in on nearly 200,000. Overall stock futures flat as the likely catalyst for the market, at least in the morning, will be the 10:00 release of the used homes

Stock futures aren't indicating a continuation of the explosive upside action we experienced following the surprise move by the Fed to move away from its tightening bias, but futures are still on the plus side. Economic data today: Jobless Claims slipped last week 4,000. How real was yesterday's rise? Well, I've talked about the liquidity injections and perhaps being 'real' doesn't have to

What happens between now and 2:15 this afternoon will mostly be forgotten by 2:15 when we hear the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. No one is expecting the Fed will change interest rates today, as the guessing (and money to made and lost) lies in what the Fed may or may not address with respect the risk of a future economic slowdown. Brief note from Goldman Sachs: "FOMC will keep

The headline number on the housing data looks great - 9% jump in February Housing Starts! But look under the hood and the report is another clunker with that 2-1/2 percent slide in building permits to a 1.532 mln annual rate. The British Pound is surging today - Pound futures are up 160 points after higher than expected UK inflation figures - 2.8% gain vs expected 2.7% - sparked speculation the

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a higher open and again the connection points to a weak Japanese Yen. Last night the Yen out of the gate was strong and S&P futures were down almost 5 points, but as the Yen pushed toward resistance at .8700 (.8702 was the high of the night) and then weakened, stock futures rebounded. The experience of higher morning futures since the late February tankage

There is subprime nirvana, at least for Accredited (LEND) and Fremont (FMT)... Accredited Home Lenders is selling $2.7 Billion of Loans. The loans are being sold at what is being called a discount, but being sold and the stock is surging. Fremont General (FMT) is also surging. Real estate lender Corus says it now owns 2.5 mln shares of FMT at a cost basis of $12.73. They still have a ways to go

Here's my quick and dirty chart of the day which shows upper resistance on the S&P 500 in the 1410 area and lower end support in the 1364 area. It's really that simple and that complicated. Call me unimpressed by yesterday's reversal. What would get me more impressed is if the heavy and broad participation that came with the initial selloff days in late February and early March re-emerged along

Late yesterday I referenced the interview of a guy on CNBC who scoffed at last week's VIX rise as being anything but a temporary blip. This morning, veteran options strategist Larry McMillan, at McMillan's Daily Volume Alerts makes this observation: "I am hearing more grousing about CNBC's incessant bullish cheerleading. More than a few inexperienced investors feel that they were sucked back into

Blow out results from Goldman Sachs aren't enough to soothe investor fears over subprime. It was another quarter of record profits at Goldman (GS). But Wall Street has been spoiled by record earnings and Goldman and the stock is up a little more than 1%. As noted yesterday, options implied volatility had become so extreme on Accredited Lenders (LEND) options yesterday at over 200%, I asked

Stock futures had been on the plus side until the latest New Century (NEW) news hit. The fat lady is just about to sing. Lenders have halted New Century's financing. Bankruptcy appears likely. Meantime, at Countrywide (CFC), subprime loan fundings fell by $200 mln in February $2.6 bln as it tighten lending standards. Countrywide's total loan fundings still managed to rise by 10%, year over

The data we've been waiting for is out, and a sigh of relief has been heard at Broad and Wall. February payrolls up 97,000 is enough to get buyers back with S&P futures up nearly 8. In a separate report, the U.S. trade gap narrowed again in January. Across the markets, dollar is higher, bonds are lower, not much change for crude oil or gold. What I find that's nifty is Wall Street's ability to turn lemons into lemonade. The jobs generation was the worst in more than 2 years, but whisper numbers were down at 50k so it's time to swing from the chandeliers where the bulls are concerned. The graphic to left comes from Marketwatch where their headline reads, "Reassuring Data On Payrolls". Pardon me for being a simpleton, but when the bars in the chart to the left are getting shorter that doesn't seem to be reassuring.The S&P 500 is poised challenge the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement today.But to be a convincingly bullish rally, volume has got push past the 2 bln mark today. It has trailed

After more plus signs in Asian markets, along with a dip in the Yen, it's coming up roses for the bulls with firm S&P futures.On the economic front, U.S. initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 328,000, though the link points out that the 4-week moving average continued to scoot higher.Upside S&P 500 targets: 38% Fibonacci retracement (I had a typo yesterday and I think wrote 50%), but 38.2% retracement is at 1406, and 50% at 1417.... no doubt resistance gets tough the further the bulls try to push it towards the 50% line. My preferred way of playing a continued upside rebound is S&P futures. An 11 point rise in futures is nice to behold, but the bulls had better hope they haven't already shot their whole wad this morning especially given the sloppy close yesterday and the lighter than usual volume seen on upward moves the last few sessions.As pretty much every economist expected, the European Central Bank lifted its key interest rate a quarter point to 3.75%. Of greater importance

So it's looking like a fairly flat opening for Wall Street with S&P futures down only a few. Yen and Euro futures both showing modest gains of about 15 points this morning. Gold is holding on to a rise of just over $1 at 647. I will continue to hold GLD and avoid gold futures for the time being. When the stock market becomes volatile, there are just more opportunities for me to focus on in stocks and stock futures and I will put commodities futures on the back burner.From perma bull Abby Joseph Cohen and Goldman Sachs:"The sharp decline in share prices has enhanced the already attractive valuation of the S&P 500, as has the decline in bond yields. Commentators have provided long lists of possible catalysts, both domestic and global. But US fundamentals have changed very little. Recession remains highly unlikely. Inflation is not problematic, and Fed ease is a possibility, if needed. The 1987 sell-off in global markets was exacerbated by so-called portfolio insurance schemes

Stock futures down just a few points waiting for cues from economic data. There's almost a feeling of semi normalcy as we await economic data to provide some clues on economic data following a fairly quiet night in Asia. With Agent Paulson in China, doubtful we see a meltdown in Shanghai while he's there. ADP employment data is due later this more. More ahead of the open a little later.This is more speculation about a super secret Google phone that's not so super secret anymore. Also, Google upgraded at UBS.

It looks like we're finally getting an oversold bounce with S&P futures flying higher by more than 1%. As I mentioned last night, there are many fundamentals that make the factors behind the recent slide in the market quite dissimilar to the May, 2006 drop; but from a technical standpoint, last May is useful to examine since it's the last period of a large downward move in the stock market and a big upward spike in the volatility indexes (VIX and VXO).One lesson that I walk away from in looking at this Spring/Summer 2006 chart of the S&P is that the index slumped in May, sharply recovered, then slumped again to lower lows, sharply rebounded, then retested the lows in July. I don't mean to be a wet blanket, but there are no magic bullets to automatically reverse what happened last week so it will be interesting to see the staying power of this rebound (hours? days? several days?) and when yesterday's lows are re tested. I think a restest and below is likely to the area of 200 day av

Things are actually looking a little better as of 8ish this morning. I was up late last night and actually saw S&P futures down 20! Down 10 is still ugly enough, but a 50% retracement from the lows overnight simply tells me it's not going to be a straight line down - down to be sure - but no doubt volatile again. Last year the Volatility Index ($VIX) surged intraday to nearly 24 and there now no doubt in my mind that we see that high mark taken out considering that last June's VIX peak was tied to a far less tumultuous time in the market.Subprime is pretty much a wasteland this morning. Analysts are trying to save face by cutting their ratings. Stifel Nicolaus has cut Accredited (LEND), Novastar (NFI) and New Century (NEW) to SELL from Hold based of sagging industry fundamentals. Jeffries has also downgraded NEW to Underperform and suspended their estimates.Countrywide Financial (CFC) has been downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Lehman. Lehman, by the way, is knee d

The headline is blazing on Marketwatch: "Futures Signal Big Losses". Most times I pay little heed, but with S&P futures down 13 and Dow futures down 95, it does appear as if a slide is on the way.As Marketwatch says, there are a confluence of problems for the bulls:-Durable goods orders fell 7.8% in January.-Shanghai's Composite Index shed nearly 10%, its biggest fall in 10 years, amid profit-taking sparked by concerns that the government may implement new measures to cool speculative behavior. See Asia Markets.-Japanese Yen futures up 123 points! Carry trades being unwound following the China selloff. See Currencies.The news has taken commodities down across the board, including energy and metals.My stop for gold futures is quite a bit below the present levels and of course I won't be selling any GLD.Interesting with the China woes, I have an open put position in Baidu.com (BIDU) which has been SUFFERING, so today that will actually rebound, w/BIDU down about 5%.I also have various