Hantu Laut
Hooray! The price of crude had fallen below $50 a barrel.The price slid to as low as $48.64 today.Who was right those mumble-jumble sycophantic economists or .........? Than you have those who made foreccasts and predictions but didn't have the balls to put their names on it.
Employing academicians who spent more time trying to please their bosses to listen to what is pleasant to
According to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, private-sector economists indicated that they believe the United States economy fell into recession last spring. The economists also expect a sharp contraction during the fourth quarter 2008.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also
Here is the lastest results from a survey of economists provided by the Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. economy is in the midst of the worst part of the recession, but growth may return by the second half of next year, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents say the Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program, which has
Mr. McCain was asked in one of the debates how he would deal with the economic crisis, he answered: “Well, the first thing we have to do is get spending under control.”In a deep and protracted recession, the last thing you want to do is cut government spending. Reducing government spending will reduce aggregate demand and slow the economy even more. By the way this is exactly what the British
I rely on the Economist news magazine for a rational, intelligent - if at times slightly stodgy - conservative perspective. At best, it forces me to venture outside of my left-liberal comfort zone and consider another perspective. At worst, I may sometimes think that they are completely full of shit.In the latest issue, the Economist presented a poll of ... well, economists. The result may su
Citigroup economists predicted that Singapore economy will likely go into a long recession that will last several quarters and the worst will likely occur in H1 2009.Most economists have already cut their estimates of Singapore's 2008 growth to less than 4%, the lower limit of the government forecast. Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng pared his GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2008 and 2.5% for 20
Forex: Why Psychiatrists Make Better Traders Than Expert Economists?ForexGen strives to give incomparable professional and individualized trading services.As a professional online trading service, ForexGen provides several facilities for all kinds of traders.It should be noted that millionaire traders, Elder, Williams and some others are in fact professional psychiatrists. And it is not accidental
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on September 13 met with local economists to assess the socio-economic performance and discuss its prospect in the remaining months of the year and 2009.
PM Dung mentioned the fact that the global economy has since the beginning of this year experienced turmoil with price hike and inflation. “The situation forced many countries to revise their economic growth
A survey of 25 economists shows that forecast for Singapore economic growth is reduced to 4.2% for 2008, down from the 5.5% predicted in an earlier poll.The lower growth prediction comes amid signs of an economic slowdown after a tumble in key exports over the last few months, particularly to US and other industrialised economies.The poll shows that economists expect the manufacturing sector to ex
One of the main reasons that I think economists can't seem to agree on how to value the appropriate price for housing is because they tend to take a 30,000-foot view, sort of what you might see when flying over an area. Then, taking out their magic pencils, they wave it over the area and proclaim that prices must fall by a certain amount in order to revert to a long-term relationship between pric
A v-shaped recession? U-shaped? How bad will it be? Will it turn into a depression? At this point, a depression is unlikely, at least according to a group of economists contacted for a story in the New York Times (via Patrick.net):Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, economists generally agree that the United States is not heading for another Great Depression. Not only are the condit
Over the next few weeks I will be writing about some of the great economists. I will not be attempting to discuss every aspect of their work, but, will be looking at their major contributions to the world of EconomicsJohn Maynard Keynes makes a good starting point because he was both an influential economist and a man of many talents.Unlike many economists, Keynes, was very much at home in the bus
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How many economists does it take to screw in a light bulb?
None. If the light bulb really needed changing, market forces would have already caused it to happen.
Economists’ growth forecast for full year dips to 5.5%
Latest MAS poll also finds that projections for most sectors have eased slightly
By Nicholas Fang
THE economic outlook for the year is looking a bit like a ride on a roller coaster - a lot of ups and downs with the view changing all the time.
This is partly [...]
The one major piece of economic data to be released June 10, at 8:30 AM, will be an update of the U.S. Trade Balance for April 2008. After a current account deficit of -$58.2 billion in the preceding month, economists peg this batch of data at a deficit of -$58-$60 billion.
One of my bug bears, and something that I am increasingly aware of editing a maths magazine, is the bad use of maths to prove a point, particularly regarding cause and effect.Yesterday, I was reading The Independent on Sunday, not a newspaper usually prone to sensationalist journalism and easily my favourite UK newspaper (there is not all that much competition, it doesn't have breasts on page 3).H
One of my bug bears, and something that I am increasingly aware of editing a maths magazine, is the bad use of maths to prove a point, particularly regarding cause and effect.Yesterday, I was reading The Independent on Sunday, not a newspaper usually prone to sensationalist journalism and easily my favourite UK newspaper (there is not all that much competition, it doesn't have breasts on page 3).H
clipped from www.ucsusa.orgWASHINGTON (May 29, 2008) – More than 1,700 of the nation's most prominent scientists and economists today released a joint statement calling on policymakers to require immediate, deep reductions in heat-trapping emissions that cause global warming. Issued just days before the Senate begins debate on the Lieberman-Warner climate bill, the statement marks the first time
The Economist’s Song(Sung to the tune of“Try A LittleTenderness.”)
They get derided,Economists get chided,Their predictions are so often wrong;But though misguided,Their reasoning is always strong.
They seek no favors,For errors ask no waivers,Right half the time is enough;As for those bum calls,If you lost your shirt , that’s tough.
It isn’t much to ask for,The cushy sinecures t
Economists say oil highs will not hit GDP growth as hard as expected - Singapore
By Rachel Kelly,
SINGAPORE: With oil prices continuing to push into uncharted territory, economists have been re-looking their growth forecasts for the year.
Some said that GDP growth may be squeezed by as much as half a percentage point, with [...]
By Steve MatthewsMay 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will probably exit from a recession by the end of the next quarter as credit markets improve after a year of turmoil, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.The worst of the U.S. credit crunch and housing slump is about over, and growth will pick up to 2.1 percent in the second half, according to the poll of
Back in early 2001, the Georgian government requested that a study be made of barriers to foreign investment in the country. The World Bank took up the bait and with financing from the Netherlands, asked FIAS to examine the administrative barriers to investment in Georgia. This service has a fair degree of experience in researching [...]
Business Times - 14 May 2008Fed to hold rates steady: economistsSome expect a recovery in the US economy next yearBy LYNETTE KHOO(SINGAPORE) Against the double whammy of mounting inflationary pressures and slower economic growth, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its key rates steady for the rest of this year, according to panelists at yesterday's Lunch with the Economists 2008.This likely p
May 12, 2008 Economists grow more pessimistic WASHINGTON - EVEN with some signs of improvement in the United States financial markets and a temporary boost from the economic stimulus package, the growth outlook for the second half of the year has deteriorated, according to a panel of economic forecasters. The weakest annual consumer spending since 1991 will lead to a darker outlook, the Blue Chip
"Economists say the March report for pending home sales confirms what has been known for many months now: the U.S. housing market is still several months away from stabilizing." Stabilizing where at the bottom of the sea?
Interesting commentary on CNN about why the gas tax doesn’t make sense adn why it won’t pass.
Pay particular attention to the projected savings to taxpayers. I had not previously heard the totals (other than from Obama) and it really is nearly inconsequential. The savings for the entire summer per family is estimated to [...]
"I'm not going to put my lot in with economists," Hillary Clinton said when asked which economist thinks her proposal is sane. Then she declared that the "elite opinion" of specialists in their fields is somehow harmful to the "vast majority of Americans." This is scary. A presidential candidate, who dismisses educated advice in favor of wishful thinking is really going to make mess out of our cou
That Clinton would engage in this type of pure political pandering is not surprising. It’s just another last-ditch effort that exemplifies the kind of same old Washington gamesmanship that we need to change. This may well be the most irresponsible policy idea of the year. How stupid do they think we are?read more | digg story
Hillary Clinton attacks the intelligentsia by cautioning against “elite opinion” in regards to economists who do not agree with the logic or rational of her gas tax holiday. Essentially, Senator Clinton is calling economists a bunch of elitists who are out of touch with regular people. She is using Bush’s strategy on many levels in dealing with criticism from a group of people who have more knowledge and experience in a certain subject matter than she has.
Via Robert Reich's Blog: When asked this morning by ABC News' George Stephanopoulos if she could name a single economist who backs her call for a gas tax holiday this summer, HRC said "I'm not going to put my lot in with economists.” I know several of the economists who have been advising Senator Clinton, so I phoned them right after I heard this. I reached two of them. One hadn’t heard her remark and said he couldn’t believe she’d say it. The other had heard it and shrugged it off as “politics as usual.” That’s the problem: Politics as usual. Of course, that is Hillary's problem, she represents the Democrat establishment. You know, the establishment, that authorized a Military style raid on a religious compound in Waco, Te
Fifty Major Economists (Routledge Key Guides) # Author:Steven Pressman# Format:PDF 1.3MB# Page Count: 322 pages# Publisher: Routledge; 2 edition (May 25, 2006)# Language: English# ISBN-10: 0415366496# ISBN-13: 978-0415366496Building upon the huge success of the previous edition, this updated text provides a clear, comprehensive guide to the most influential individuals in the field of economics.Covering a wide range of thinkers across several centuries, features of this second edition include:* a significantly revised and expanded introduction discussing the importance of the history of economics, and highlighting the main schools of thought* updated bibliographies and referencing to take account of the wealth of secondary literature available* new entries on todays pioneering economists,
The country is bracing for more bad news on the jobs front. In advance of Friday’s employment snapshot from the Labor Department, economists were predicting that employers cut jobs yet again in April. That would mark the fourth straight month of job losses. The unemployment rate, now at 5.1 percent, is expected to edge up [...]
There were three different economists opining at the NAHB Spring Construction Conference. All are hoping that the worst is behind us, but that builders need to adapt, Congress needs to act and sales need to increase so inventory levels are reduced; From the Nation's Building News:The outlook for housing and the economy should be gradually brightening within a few months, but before there can be any assurance that the worst of the downturn is over, there needs to be a pickup in home sales, according to panelists at NAHB’s Spring Construction Forecast Conference on April 24 in Washington, D.C. Residential production and sales this year have declined “more sharply than anticipated,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders, and the situation for the U.S. economy “definitely has darke
In his latest Mortgage Credit News, columnist Lou Barnes takes Dr. Robert Shiller to task for predicting a 30% decline in home prices but offering no specifics:The media are having a wonderful time mis-reporting housing conditions, ooing and ahhing every time Robert Shiller shouts “Fire!” in the theater. This week he predicted (again) a “30% decline in housing prices.” All of them, Robert? Uniformly? Average? Do the math: if half the nation’s homes stay price-flat, the other half must fall 60%. Is that it? Or did you mean to say decline 30% in a few places? Some individual projects are off more than 60% right now (an FL condo or two... AZ and CA land), but the worst dozen mini-metro areas have yet to decline as much as 20%. In authentic data, OFHEO found that home prices mea
Economists not surprised by slower jobs growth forecast - Singapore
By Ng Baoying,
SINGAPORE : Jobs growth this year will come off the record highs seen last year. According to the Singapore National Employers Federation (SNEF), the pace will come in at about 3-4 percent, down from the 7.7 percent jump in 2007.
Economists said these numbers do [...]
CNBC has a story about how economists are gloomy about US economy: Economists Even More Gloomy About US ProspectsBusiness economists are turning pessimistic about the U.S. outlook and increasingly fear economy will slip into a recession in coming months.The National Association for Business Economics said that the 109 members who responded to its quarterly survey were "notably downbeat" about their first-quarter experience and about near-term prospects.For the first time in five years, reports of falling profit margins outnumbered reports of rising margins in the first quarter of 2008......"Seventy percent say they are more pessimistic than three months ago," NABE said.Among other concerns, 66 percent of respondents said they paid more for materials in the first quarter this year, which NA
According to CNBC:
Economists Even More Gloomy About US Prospects
Business economists are turning pessimistic about the U.S. outlook and increasingly fear economy will slip into a recession in coming months.
The National Association for Business Economics said Monday that the 109 members who responded to its quarterly survey between March 24 and April 8 were “notably downbeat” [...]
By JEANNINE AVERSAAP Economics WriterApril 21, ABC NewsWashington - The odds the country will fall into its first recession since 2001 are rising sharply.Thirty percent of economists now believe the economy will shrink in the first half of this year, up from 10 percent who thought this in January, according to a survey being released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, known by its acronym NABE."That's a striking difference," said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America and the NABE's point person on the survey. The tone of the overall survey, he said, was "extremely gloomy."Under one rough rule, if the economy contracts for six straight months it would be considered in a recession. Many economist and the public believe we are
Economists say S’pore’s GDP growth likely to rebound in Q1
By Ng Baoying,
SINGAPORE : Singapore’s economy is expected to see a rebound in the first quarter. Economists are forecasting GDP to expand by some 6.8% on year, swinging up from the 4.8% decline in the previous three months.
They said the boost will come from a rebound [...]
Earlier today I read an interesting article that discussed the U.S. employment outlook and which jobs may or may not be good bets in a deteriorating economy. Martin Crutsinger of the Associated Press wrote:
While the downturn is expected to be short and mild, economists are still forecasting the unemployment rate, which jumped to 5.1 [...]
Founded in 1979, the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE) was established as a means of exchanging ideas, stimulating research, and promoting graduate training in resource and environmental economics. AERE currently has over 800 members from more than thirty...
Fully 71% of 51 Economists of surveyed agreed the US economy has slid into recession according to Wall Street Journals online edition today.Retail sales fell a pointed .6% in February as consumer spending tumbled. Consumers continue to grapple with high fuel prices, bad home value information and shrinking 401Ks due to market issues.This is a big turnaround from just 5 weeks ago. 20 surveyed felt the economy would actually go backwards for the year and that unemployment would rise to 5.5%The turnaround in opinion can be traced to the recent employment report that showed a loss of 63,000 jobs for the month. The second month in a row with negative job growth.A better phrase is probably "recessionary" as the textbook definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GNP (Gross National
According to the Wall Street Journal:
Most Economists Say Recession Has Arrived as Outlook Darkens
The U.S. has finally slid into recession, according to the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal economic-forecasting survey, a view that was reinforced by new data showing a sharp drop in retail sales last month.
“The evidence is now beyond [...]
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun.The smallest Malay rabbit deplores this foolish habit.--Noel Coward. A group of economists say the US should...
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Economists have a certain world view. Their economic training gives a different insight into issues that non economists might not appreciate or consider important. These are few examples of different approaches to economic issues. There are other examples of differences and perhaps these differences are not as significant as we might imagine; I would be interested in hearing the view of both
Economists say Indonesia's economic outlook for next year is stable, but the poor look set to gain few of the benefits.Director of the central bank's economic research unit, Made Sukada says there has been strong domestic consumption and overseas demand for commodities.He says this is likely to push economic growth to between six-point-two and six-point-eight per cent in 2008.The Indonesian government is targeting growth of 6.3 per cent this year.It also forecasts that the economy will expand by 6.4 to 6.7 per cent in 2008.Indonesia News Blog: http://indosnesos.blogspot.com
This appellative is obviously not intended to be a compliment but rather a criticism for not being able to predict the future.Some background: -1929: The Great Depression (also known in the U.K. as the Great Slump) was a dramatic, worldwide economic downturn beginning in some countries as early as 1928-2001-2002: Finland plunge into a recession. Technology shares slumped.-2007: US Housing Slump, the real estate bubble burst. Interest rate were 5.25% in August 2007.-2007: Euro interest rates rose from 2% (December 2005) to 4% (November 2007).Some predictions: "There is no Bubble to burst (US)" - Jim Folkman, Vice President Home Builders Association of Central New Mexico, 23 Sept. 2005 "An actual price bubble cannot be seen on the Finnish housing market, and sudden changes on the price level ar
Here's a depressing AP article about consumer borrowing habits. The Christmas shopping season is already upon us, with retailers begging you to come in and spend money you don't have. Home equity loans are dried up, leaving credit cards as the most accessible way to borrow your way into oblivion. As a result, revolving credit debt is up-up-up! That's not really what depresses me. What upsets me is that the "experts" out there, the economists, whoever they are, are completely happy with the outcome.Now that Americans have sucked all the equity out of their home, they're diving right into higher-interest debt, with the credit card industry. It's kind of like jumping out of a pool with a couple sharks and into a pool with a dozen piranhas.During the housing boom, when home sales were hitting records for five consecutive years and prices were soaring, many homeowners tapped the rising value of their homes to finance increased spending by taking out home equity lines of credit.However,
By Shamim Adam Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore's economy risks overheating as home prices reach the highest in a decade, companies hire workers at an unprecedented pace and the stock market soars to record levels, economists say. Inflation at a 12-year high and an economy expanding ``a little too rapidly'' mean signs of overheating are ``a few too many for comfort,'' Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore, said in an Oct. 3 report. ``Consumer prices are by no means the only thing running relatively hot in the economy at present,'' Prior-Wandesforde said. ``A buoyant labor market was accompanied by strong wage growth. The Straits Times index has also risen nearly 50 percent over the last year.'' Singapore's economy grew an annualized 14.4 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace in two years, fueled by construction and financial services. Employers added a record number
By Paul Krugman, The New York Times. Posted August 10, 2007.In September 1998, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a giant hedge fund, led to a meltdown in the financial markets similar, in some ways, to what's happening now. During the crisis in '98, I attended a closed-door briefing given by a senior Federal Reserve official, who laid out the grim state of the markets. "What can we do about it?" asked one participant. "Pray," replied the Fed official.Our prayers were answered. The Fed coordinated a rescue for L.T.C.M., while Robert Rubin, the Treasury secretary at the time, and Alan Greenspan, who was the Fed chairman, assured investors that everything would be all right. And the panic subsided.Yesterday, President Bush, showing off his M.B.A. vocabulary, similarly tried to reassure the markets. But Mr. Bush is, let's say, a bit lacking in credibility. On the other hand, it's not clear that anyone could do the trick: right now we're suffering from a serious shortage of
Author: Kenneth J. Arrow, Michael SzenbergPaperback: 496 pagesPublisher: Edward Elgar Publishing (December 4, 2004)Language: EnglishISBN: 1843766280In this collection of autobiographical essays, 26 prominent scholars detail their professional development, while offering insight into their lives and philosophies. With candor and humor they relate how they came to the field of economics, as well as how their views have evolved over the years. Highlights of the collection include discussions by: Irma Adelman on how World War II shaped her life; Mark Blaug on how Marxism, involvement with the Communist Party, and McCarthyism influenced his scholarship; Victor Fuchs on economic perspective and its applicability to many disciplines; Allan Meltzer on his development as a researcher; and Julian Simon on his eclectic career and untraditional path to economics. Zip Password: T0sT@rN@
From VOA NewsInternational economists say China's huge buildup of foreign currency reserves has contributed to the boom conditions that have led to a bubble in the Shanghai stock market, which is up 400 percent in less than two years. VOA's Barry Wood has more on what might be an unanticipated consequence of China's export success.Ted Truman was the top international specialist at the Federal Reserve and then the U.S. Treasury during the East Asian financial crisis a decade ago. Now a fellow at Washington's Peterson Institute for International Economics, Truman believes China has made a mistake by not allowing its currency's value to rise faster against the dollar. The resulting buildup of foreign reserves, he says, is having unintended consequences that could hurt China's domestic economy."The risk is principally on the internal side. The buildup of these reserves is creating domestic liquidity (expanded money supply), which will create boom conditions in domestic markets -- rea
An economist for the Ludwig van Mises Institute wrote an article for them last week that seems to miss more than a few points about why Spider-Man's popularity and sales dropped in the mid-1990s. First, I'll point out in fairness that their not turning the profit bookstores wanted, leading to their banishing from the bookstore scene for many years, was what caused losses in sales, but there's still a lot more to this that the writer predictably doesn't consider. Let's look at the following:Whose Fault Is It?Basic economics tells us that if the demand for Amazing Spider-Man increases at an existing supply, more will be offered for it and the price will rise. Profits at Marvel, Spider-Man's publisher, would grow, and managers at Marvel would therefore increase the supply of comics, or competitors would enter the market with similar products. This increase in supply would reduce prices and profits. Conversely, a drop in demand should result in a decline in price, profits, and supply
Houston, Texas (CaymanMama.com) -- Both economists and consumers think differently when it is the issue of economy. It seems both consumer and economists strongly disagree about the way economy is proceeding. However, a recent consumer survey had 5,000 people surveyed by the Conference Board and it was found that ...
