On Thursday 26 June 2008, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) crashed and fell almost 360 points after crude oil futures rose sharply passing above $140 level and was told by OPEC president Chakib Khelil that crude oil prices could go up to $170 per barrel this summer. Dow loses extended to Friday when it dropped 106.91 (-0.93%) to close at 11,346.51. DJI lowest level of 11,634 in Jan 2008 was take
GS. 170 seems like the next obvious target but I like it all the way down to 160. I don't like entering any trade that isn't elbows-to-assholes against its trendline, as tempting as it is, so I will try to show some patience here. Hopefully we see some sort of one day bounce or short-covering rally back to GS 180. This is just one example of a good looking chart but a lot of things broke down o
6-4-08
18:12 GMT - AUD/USD has been caught in a bearish channel beginning on 5/18 and I expect trend resistance currently at 1.9630 to hold and repel any stabs upward. RSI also crashed off its bearish channel resistance (near 70) and pair appears to be reversing down. I expect the the pair to encounter firm support [...]
A chart pattern that consists of a small white candlestick with short shadows or tails followed by a large black candlestick that eclipses or "engulfs" the small white one. As implied by its name, a bearish engulfing pattern may provide an indication of a future bearish trend. This type of pattern usually accompanies an uptrend in a security, possibly signaling a peak or slowdo
Gold prices have tumbled lower in the last three months. The spot market is off from above $1,000 an ounce to $870 an ounce today. Of course the Gold Trust (GLD) is lower, too, from near $100 to about $87.Some of my new readers from the Forex Factory might be interested in following the unwinding of the gold bull market. Gold is very much the anti-dollar. Gold tends to trend higher when the dollar
by Laura Cadden
Baltimore — (TFN): Laura Cadden: Since late March, stocks have made up for some lost ground. Not just in the United States, but also in Hong Kong, Japan, Germany and Britain. Company earnings, especially from internationally diversified firms, have been rising as strong foreign revenues have made up for lagging U.S. sales. [...]
Baltimore — (TFN): The declining dollar and a stalling economy don’t bode well for the United States. TFN publisher J. Christoph Amberger believes impending political and cultural shifts will lead to a protracted period of economic decline that will leave America stripped of jobs and business. Watch to find out how to protect yourself… and [...]
April 7, 2008 Soros bearish on US' economic clout WASHINGTON - BILLIONAIRE George Soros said the United States' status as the world's economic superpower is no longer guaranteed, as the current financial crisis saps America's ability to compete with prospering China and India. Sub-prime mortgage defaults and the resulting credit convulsions have accelerated the US' weakening position in global markets, he said in an interview on Conversations With Judy Woodruff, airing on Bloomberg Television over the weekend. 'I think that you will have to somehow reconstruct the global architecture,' said Mr Soros, 77. 'China has become much more important, India, and so on. What kind of system will evolve of this, I think, is a very open question.' The market disruptions prompted him last year to resume
Bullish and Bearish Divergence SignalsMomentum indicators are normally used more as overbought/oversold indicators with levels above an upper level between 70 and 80 suggesting potential for a reversal lower and a lower level between 20 and 30 suggesting potential for a reversal higher. Bullish divergence: Rising price highs in an uptrend while corresponding highs in the momentum indicator are declining. Bearish divergence: Declining price lows in a downtrend while corresponding lows in the momentum indicator are rising.Download Forex eBookCombining RSI And ADX ADX and RSI are valuable trading tools and a combination of the two would seem to offer some interesting possibilities. RSI primarily as an indicator for buying on dips in an uptrend. The ADX is my primary indicator of trend strengt
Residential property SINGAPORE Our view We retain our Bearish stance on Singapore’s residential sector, with the market moving swiftly from a state of denial to acknowledging the realities on the ground. We see asset prices being driven down further by the marginal speculative sellers, amid low transaction volumes and rising unsold pre-sale inventories. Anchor themes Residential rents are likely to remain firm in the short term, given the low vacancy, though rising new supply is likely to cap rental gains from 2H08F — we forecast vacancy will rise from 5.7% at end-2007F to 8.2% at end-2010F. Luxury residential prices have risen too fast relative to rental expectations. We see the marginal speculative seller in the pre-sale market as the catalyst for asset price declines in the luxury s
The game of financial markets functions to extract wealth from a majority of the players, and most of the public investors have now taken sizable losses and taken on extremely negative attitudes. They are probably wrong. Public Crowd Holds Mostly Trend Followers Trend followers represent those who tend to arrive “late to the party”. As the market peaked in 07, risk considerations did not exist for average investors; and now, as general volatility takes a breather, nothing but despair and misery. Numerous investors had liquidated stock positions taking relatively large losses, while professional traders began to cover short positions for profit. By the time moms and pops have expressed strong downside, cataclysmic sentiment; the festivity of liquidations would have reached
The fundamental picture for this US economy - Fed or No Fed is bearish.
Main street USA will continue to drive the markets south on the fundamental basis of declining real estate values and pending higher unemployment.
The main driver for all of this of course is the diminishing home value scenario. It is here, [...]
Today’s near 300 point Dow Jones decline also printed a potential “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern at resistance, which could signal more bearishness is ahead.
Let’s look at the Daily chart and drill down to the smaller time frames:
The Bearish Engulfing pattern occurs when the second day completely overtakes the previous day’s high and low. Technically, [...]
Market strategy is to cover a bounce near 1.9995Sterling’s momentum is recovering towards the zero line. MACD 12 & 26 had a bearish cross above the zero line. Prices have made a break past the middle Bollinger band but rebounded downwards without touching the upper band. Market strategy is to cover a bounce near 1.9995.Finotec
The dollar has an important influence on the direction of interest rates. The direction of interest rates has a delayed impact on the direction of the dollar. The result is a circular relationship...
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Helicopter Ben seems more than a bit dour on the prospects for the economy:"The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased," Bernanke said. "To date, the largest economic effects of the financial turmoil appear to have been on the housing market, which, as you know, has deteriorated significantly over the past two years or so." Bernanke also said that the "virtual shutdown" of the market for subprime mortgages — given to people with blemished credit histories or low incomes — and a reluctance by skittish lenders to make "jumbo" home loans exceeding $417,000 have aggravated problems in the housing market.Unsold homes have piled up and foreclosures have climbed to record highs. "Further cuts in homebuilding and in related activi
The ISM report that was released today fueled traders and investors recession concerns. The report was the main catalyst for today’s selloff as it came in at 47.7, under the expansion/contraction line which is considered to be 50. Readings under 47 have been recessionary in the last two recessions. Also fueling today’s move was oil breaking a $100, gold hitting $864.90 and a weak dollar.
Over
Yesterday was Thanksgiving holiday and the US dollar came under constant pressure, bouncing off another record low against the EUR touching the 1.4872 mark. It is still believed by many forex traders and major banks, that problems to U.S. economic growth still exists and more Americans are forecasted to suffer from the credit and the mortgage crisis. US housing crisis still remains the source of recent troubles with US development and therefore consequently the dollar is less preferential at this stage against other major currencies. The Greenback has not passed the pain barrier just yet and it is forecasted to suffer further collapses. At the heart of the dollar’s weakness is the outlook of a weakening US economy mainly influenced by the subprime crises still being felt just as inflation concerns are rising to the surface, which is chiefly influenced by the resent elevated oil prices. In addition, the last fall in weekly mortgage requests, symbols a stress in the labor market.
Yesterday the greenback weakened sharply all across the board on the back of the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The greenback slipped to new all time low against the EUR touching the 1.4852 mark, as the minutes gave another strong indication to the market that the Fed will once again cut rates in order to prevent the U.S economy from slipping into recession. The Fed indicated that it expects U.S growth to slow to between 1.8 and 2.5 percent, which is much lower than previous forecasts. Therefore the Fed is now expected to cut rates by at least 0.25%, in order to stimulate growth by attempting to alleviate the housing and credit crisis.
However the dollar selling began well before the FOMC Minutes with the release of weaker than expected Building Permits figure. This figure was forecasted to come in at 1.20M but it released at 1.18M, showing a sharp drop from last month’s figure of 1.26M. This downside surprise increased the pressure on the greenback as it indicated that
Share prices are expected to be dominated by bearish trade this week as turmoil on Wall Street and disappointing corporate results at home affect sentiment.
Overall local results were on the...
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Jim Cramer pushed Starbucks (SBUX) throughout 2006 citing strong overseas growth, especially from a growing presence in China, but the stock couldn't push past 40 as worries about decelerating domestic growth and a weakening brand presence frequented the news. Cramer went bearish on Starbucks (SBUX) at the beginning of 2007 and has stayed negative, saving viewers from a 28% decline during a drop from nearly 35 to 27, where the stock sits today. Jim often includes Whole Foods Market (WFMI) as another former high growth darling that should not currently be owned. Howard Schultz, billionaire Chairman and Founder of Starbucks, has been a friend of the Mad Money show, appearing four times as a guest.
I typed up the following transcript of guest Kirby Daley, strategist at Fimat, form Squawk Box Asia on Sunday, 05 August (yeah, I prepare all of my weekly content early in the week). I have expressed approbation for CNBC Asia several times in the past and I especially like several of the guests with recurring [...]
An increase of 77 billion cubic feet in U.S. natural-gas inventories for the week ended July 27 matched expectations and sparked a 3% drop on natural gas futures, although it made a negligible impact on stocks from the sector.Energy shares have been cooling off in recen days on the heels of big run-ups this year as investors ponder whether earnings growth in the sector may slow as costs rise and production volumes out of North America come under pressure. September oil futures advanced 80 cents to $76.33 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hit an all-time high Wednesday of $78.77.Energy stocks weak as oil rises Against this backdrop, the Amex Oil Index (XOI :1,346.17, -9.74, -0.7% ) fell 1.1%, as investors looked beyond stronger-than-expected earnings from refiner Sunoco. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX :262.66, -4.06, -1.5% ) dropped 1.3%, while the Amex Nat
EUR/USD broke through 1.3400 today on Forex market - showing a new 7-week low. Good macroeconomic data from U.S. was the reason for this break-through. Nonfarm payrolls - a major employment indicator of the U.S. economy - increased by 157,000 in May (22 thousands more than expected), while ISM Index - reported an increase by 0.3% up to 55.0% (against 54.0% expected). ISM Index means a lot in the U.S. economy because it describes its most powerful industries, and greatly influences FOMC rate decisions. Now it is quite possible to see an increase in U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this Fall, in my opinion.
by Dave Marino
The headline numbers on the EIA report -- crude up 1 million barrels, gasoline up 1.7 million and distillate up 1 million -- sent the gasoline market lower, but the report is not overly bearish.
The 1.528 million b/d total US gasoline imports and the 204,000 b/d week-over-week in Gulf Coast gasoline output should ease some supply concerns, as it shows refineries coming back
by Dave Marino
The headline numbers on the EIA report -- crude up 1 million barrels, gasoline up 1.7 million and distillate up 1 million -- sent the gasoline market lower, but the report is not overly bearish.
The 1.528 million b/d total US gasoline imports and the 204,000 b/d week-over-week in Gulf Coast gasoline output should ease some supply concerns, as it shows refineries coming back
by Jim JelterBuyers continued to nibble away at the energy sector Wednesday, pushing stocks steadily higher through the session while shrugging off mildly bearish data on U.S. fuel supplies.
At the close, the Amex Oil Index ($XOI :1,313.21, +16.74, +1.3% ) was up 1.1% at 1,286.7 points, the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG : 504.47, +4.34,
by Jim Jelter (WatchMarket)
Buyers continued to nibble at the energy sector Wednesday, pushing up stocks of the better performers while shrugging off mildly bearish data on U.S. fuel supplies.
By midday, the Amex Oil Index amex oil ind ($XOI : 1,283.82, +10.88, +0.9% ) was up 0.7%, the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG : 496.55, +4.86,
From India DailyThe world stock markets were rising with hope that the emerging economies will absorb the deflation and underemployment of the US, Japan and Euro Zone economies. But things now look entirely different.The rapid growth in China and India have brought hyperinflation back with huge disparity in income levels and uneven distribution of wealth. China and India both are concerned about the same.China raised interest rates for the third time in 11 months to curb inflation and reduce asset bubbles in the world's fastest-growing major economy.Indian Prime Minister has vowed to take all possible measures to curtail the rapidly rising inflation.But no one understands that the inflation getting registered in these countries and in the Western nations are driven by debt. Debt driven mild inflation is actually deflation. By borrowing and spending consumers are shift the deflation to the future. Eventually when they cannot service the debt in future, everything will collapse.[Read mo
I look like a perma bull compared to this dude, especially when you read the last paragraph.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2007/0314.html
I can't say, however, that I completely disagree with Mr. Schiff.
With the futures pointing higher this morning I am relieved to have made a few changes to my blog portfolio yesterday. If this is a rocking day in the markets I'm going to wish I were sitting on less cash, but I at least got rid of a good chunk of my bearish position.The changes I made yesterday were the following:Sold QID at a 1.9% loss at $56.08. I definitely want to consider my hedging alternatives going forward but QID is not how I want to do it. I do still hold QQQQ Apr 45 puts that I may sell tomorrow if we get a down day.I went long IWM at $77.50. I may be glad I have this today. I see this ETF as a nice way to capitalize on a bounce back in small caps.I went long PCU at $68. I like the longer term chart and see this one as a semi-longish swing trade.And that's about it. I went from 45% cash to 31% cash and my short position decreased from 23% to 6%. Going forward I like the idea of shorting a stock here as downside protection. I just need to put a little thought into
The Dow just hit a new yearly high, which also happens to be a new all-time high, but at least so far none of the other major market averages have joined the Dow at new yearly highs. So, this could be a bearish divergence forming unless the other indices kick it into gear. For the NDX that would be quite a feat as it remains close to 3.5% below it's 52 week high, and so far has not even made it
When we heard that "Bearish" Bob Nardelli got the top spot in Auburn Hills by boldly predicting that Chrysler was in deep shit, we reckoned that the former Home Depot CEO would be soon bordering on clinical depression. Well, more evidence has emerged that Nardelli "gets it" that Chrysler is swirling down the sales toilet, this time in the form of an email circulated to the Pent
